How Big is Big?
How Much Could the New Wells Cause
the Township's Population to Grow?
East Cocalico Township currently has about 10,500 residents and 3,500 households.
Well "F" will provide an estimated 4,721 EDUs of water (an EDU is the amount of water needed for a single family home). Some of this water will be used to supply new homes, and some will be used for businesses (industrial and commercial).
The Authority has compiled a list of properties within the Township's existing "Urban Growth Boundary" that they expect to be developed over the next 25 years. Of these, about 60% of the estimated water use is for residential use (new homes).
This gives us (just considering water availability):
Estimated new households from
Well "F" =
4,721 x 60% = 2,832.6
Estimated East Cocalico
Households after Well "F"
is Fully Used =
3,500 + 2832.6 = 6,332.6
Estimated Population Growth
from Well "F" =
6,332.6 ¸3,500 = 181%
Well "F" May Increase the
Population by
Over 80%
But, there is a second well proposed...
Well "F" was permitted by the
Susquehanna River Basin
Commission (see
page 3352) at:
1,150,000 Gallons Per Day (GPD)
The second well, Well "M" was permitted at:
1,580,000 GPD [37% higher capacity]
The expected EDU's from Well "M" is apparently not known yet, but if it is in the same ratio as the permit limit it should be around 6,400+ EDU's.
Estimated new households from
Well "M" =
6,400 x 60% = 3,840
Estimated Households after
Well "F"
is Fully Used =
3,500 + 2832.6 + 3,840 = 10,172.6
Estimated Population Growth
from Wells "F" & "M" =
10,172.6 ¸3,500 = 290%+
Both Wells May Increase
the Population by
Over 190%
Nearly Triple!
Just for Reference:
Population of Manheim Township in 2000:
33,697
Approximate 2007 East Cocalico Population:
10,500
Approximate East Cocalico Population after New Wells are fully used:
10,500 + 190% =
30,450
But, is there enough land available for that many residents? In the current Urban Growth Boundary there may not be enough land zoned properly to utilize all that water. However, as we learned when the Current Board of Supervisors approximately doubled the potential size of the proposed Benderson Development shopping center "Cocalico Commons," current zoning is no problem!
Also, in the minutes of the May 8, 2007 meeting of the Authority, the following comment appears:
"Manager Karen Koncle felt that in order to get more EDUs than are on the list, there would have to be an expansion of the growth boundary."
And just for reference, the area of East Cocalico Township is about 20.6 square miles while the area of Manheim Township is about 24.3 square miles.
Population densities:
Maheim Township (2000):
33,697 ¸ 24.3 = 1,387 people per square mile
East Cocalico Township (with new wells fully used):
30,450 ¸ 20.6 = 1,478 people per square mile
At that population size, East Cocalico would have a population density about 7% above what Manheim Township had in 2000. But... Manheim Township is still growing!
Could East Cocalico's population really triple? The answer is probably yes. But if action is taken now to change the current land development and subdivision ordinances and to scale back the new water system, this can still be avoided. However, that would never happen with the current Township Board of Supervisors.
On November 6th,
Vote for Kenneth D. McCrea
for Supervisor
HELP STOP URBAN GROWTH!